Is 17 inches past the hole the right putting speed? We simulated it

Seventeen inches past the hole is the right pace for putts of about 12 to 20 feet, but not for short putts or long ones. Short putts want more pace; long lags want less.

We simulated more than 100,000 putts with a virtual golfer whose errors are calibrated to PGA Tour putting. The pace that took the fewest strokes was about 3 feet past from 4–8 feet, about 2 feet from 12 feet, 17 inches from 20 feet, and under a foot from 30 feet. The biggest cost by far comes from dying short putts at the hole.

Dave Pelz's 17-inch rule is one of the best-known numbers in golf. It came from testing on real greens, and it's a good default. But a single number for every putt was always going to be a compromise. Here's what changes with distance, and why.

Where 17 inches came from

Pelz rolled thousands of putts at different speeds and found that the pace holing the most putts finished about 17 inches past the hole if it missed. His explanation was the "lumpy donut": the ring of ground around the hole, trampled by footsteps, where a slow ball wobbles off line. A ball with a little extra pace rolls through it. Much more pace and the ball starts lipping out or skipping over the hole.

That logic holds. What it doesn't account for is that a putt's pace also decides how long your next putt is if you miss, and that trade-off changes a lot with distance.

How we tested it

We used the physics model from our technical note, the physics of a breaking putt: a ball rolling over a sloped green, a hole it can drop into, and a simulated golfer who misreads slopes and mis-hits putts the way real golfers do. We tuned the golfer's overall skill so their average putts-to-hole-out matches the PGA Tour's from 2 to 40 feet (it's within 0.05 putts on average).

Then, for putts of 4, 8, 12, 20 and 30 feet across a 2% slope, flat, uphill and downhill, we had the golfer aim for ten different paces, from dying at the hole to finishing 4 feet past, and hit 5,000 putts at each. We scored every pace by the average number of putts to hole out, including the comebacker.

The results

The pattern is clear: the shorter the putt, the firmer the best pace. Pelz's 17 inches lands right in the middle, around 20 feet.

How much does it matter? Here's the cost of each pace compared with the best, in extra strokes per 100 putts (flat putts):

Three things to take from this:

1. Dying a short putt at the hole is a disaster. A 4-footer hit to die in the hole costs 52 extra strokes per 100 putts. That's half a stroke every time. Even 17 inches past costs 5 strokes per 100 on a 4-footer.
2. In the middle, it barely matters. From 12 feet, anything from 17 inches to 3 feet past is within two strokes per 100 of the best. Pelz's number is fine here.
3. On long putts, softer wins. From 30 feet, finishing 3 or 4 feet past costs 5–9 strokes per 100 in extra comebackers. Get it to the hole, but only just.

Why short putts want more pace

On a short putt your biggest risk is misreading the break, and a soft putt is the one most at the mercy of the break. A 4-footer hit to die at the hole spends its last, slowest few inches drifting with the slope: a small misread and it slides off the low side. Hit it 3 feet past and the ball goes almost straight, so a misread or a slightly off-line stroke still catches the cup.

The cost is small, because a 3-foot comebacker is almost always holed. That's the trade: a firmer pace gives up a little on the second putt and gains a lot on the first.

It also matters that a firm short putt is more forgiving of your read than your line. Our simulations found misreading the slope is the biggest single cost on putts of 5–10 feet, bigger than start-line errors. See why you miss on the low side.

Why long putts want less

From 30 feet, even tour players hole only about one putt in fifteen. Pace barely changes that. What pace does change is the length of the second putt: run a 30-footer 4 feet past and you'll face a lot of 4-footers coming back, and some of them become three-putts. On long putts, the goal isn't to hole it. It's to finish close, just past the hole so it had a chance.

The make zone: why there's no single right line

Pace and line are tied together. We simulated every combination of start line and pace for a 10-foot putt across a 2% slope. The putts that drop form a curved band: a soft putt needs lots of break, a firm one much less, and each pace has its own correct line. The band is widest for a ball that barely reaches the hole: it drops across 5½ inches of start line. At 17 inches past it's 4 inches wide, and at 4 feet past only 3.

So a soft putt is more forgiving of your line, but not of your pace. Leave it an inch short and nothing drops. That's the heart of the trade-off, and why the best pace depends on how well you control each. The chart is in the technical note.

What to do on the course

Two cautions. First, read the putt for the pace you'll hit. A firm putt needs less break than a soft one, so if you go firmer, play less break. Second, don't go firm on a fast downhill putt you're not sure about: a slick downhill 6-footer that misses can run a long way.

Our greens were perfectly smooth, so the model doesn't include Pelz's lumpy donut. If anything that would push the best pace a little firmer on real greens, especially late in the day. The model also treats the rim simply, so very firm putts may lip out a little more often in real life than here. Neither changes the big picture: never die short putts, and don't charge long ones.

How to practise pace

• Three-foot-past drill: put a tee 3 feet behind the hole. From 4–6 feet, every putt that goes in or finishes between the hole and the tee counts. Anything short is a miss.
• Lag ladder: from 30 and 40 feet, putt to finish inside a club length past the hole. Count how many finish short: that number should go down.
• Match the read to the pace: on a breaking 6-footer, hit one ball to die at the hole and one to finish 3 feet past. Watch how differently they break.

To see how pace moves the line, try the putt break calculator: set the pace to 6 inches, then 36, and watch the aim point move. On the green, Plumb Bob draws the solved line and shows how long each putt plays uphill or downhill.

FAQ

Should a putt go 17 inches past the hole?

On putts of about 15–25 feet, yes: that's close to the best pace in our simulations. On shorter putts, finishing 2–3 feet past holes more and costs fewer strokes. On long putts of 30 feet or more, finish just past, within a foot.

Is it better to leave a putt short or long?

Long. In our simulations, dying a putt at the hole was the costliest pace at every length, and hugely so on short putts: half a stroke per putt on a 4-footer. On long putts, finish just past.

How hard should I hit short putts?

Firm enough to finish about 2½–3 feet past from inside 8 feet. The ball breaks much less, so misreads and slight mis-hits still go in, and the comebacker is short.

Where does the 17-inch rule come from?

From Dave Pelz's testing on real greens, which found the pace that holes the most putts finishes about 17 inches past. He explained it with the "lumpy donut" of trampled ground around the hole that throws slow putts off line.

Does putting speed change how much a putt breaks?

Yes. A 10-foot putt across a 2% slope needs about 13 inches of break if it dies at the hole, 11 inches at 17 inches past, and under 9 inches if it runs 3 feet past.